Good commentary on today’s primaries.
Jeff Dobbs on today’s primaries.
(commenting at JustOneMinute: Mickey Mouse Time At The Times)
Big Whoop Saturday?
KS, KY, LA and ME.
Let’s see…..expectations.
Trump is expected to romp in KY and LA. Cruz has a serious shot in KS. And ME is way too unpredictable to predict – but with LePage endorsing Trump, most give him the edge. The polling has been sparse in these states with not much to go on there. What little polling there is supports the expectations above – but really can’t reflect possible changes in momentum or other factors. True to his word, Rand Paul stayed out of the endorsement business.
Let’s see……delegates.
Kansas is awarding 40 delegates, Kentucky 45, Lousiana 47 and Maine 23. A total of 195 delegates, 8% of all delegates to be awarded in the primary process. By comparison, there have been 703 delegates awarded so far – 28% of the total. After today, 898 delegates will have been awarded, which will put us past 1/3 of the way to the finish line.
These are all proportional states.
In Kansas and Maine, candidates have to reach 10% of the vote to be awarded delegates.
In Louisiana, they have to reach 20%
In Kentucky, 5%.
There is no ceiling in any of the states by which a candidate could walk away with a winner take all haul of delegates.
In Kansas, Kentucky and Maine – congressional district delegates are awarded based upon the same threshold (if you don’t win 20% in a congressional district in Kansas, you don’t get any delegates in that district, even if you are >20% at the state level. In Louisiana, there is no threshold at the congressional district level.
Let’s see……exit polls.
Nope. No exit polls for these states today. We will have to wait for actual election returns before the media can call races. Decision Desk should have a great chance to shine (assuming they have lined up the necessary volunteers in all these states).
Stella's Place 
Tomorrow is the primary in Puerto Rico. They have 23 delegates; candidates have to reach a 20% threshold to earn delegates.
Candidates can win all at-large or all delegates by surpassing a certain level of support; in Puerto Rico – and Maine – the ceiling is 50%.
If a candidate reaches the ceiling in Georgia, Minnesota, Vermont, Maine, Puerto Rico, Idaho, Michigan, Utah or Connecticut, he or she earns all the at-large and congressional district delegates from the state.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Puerto Rico?
LikeLiked by 2 people
Si, taco breath. Who knows why……
LikeLiked by 2 people
I can’t believe the stuff I am hearing on some of the news shows. A panel I watched with Varney just said Trump is totally wrong and knows nothing at all about world trade. They said if the parts weren’t made in other countries, the USA wouldn’t have any parts for the factories here.
How stupid do they think we are? Also, they saw NO problem with a 25% tariff on our products going in to China and it will start a tariff war if we try to charge a tariff on goods sent here from China.
LikeLiked by 4 people
I just hope most people aren’t listening to these “experts.”
LikeLiked by 3 people
There were “experts” that taught these “experts”. So yes. No matter what, there will be future “experts”.
LikeLiked by 4 people
Nye, you hit the nail into the beam! Chi-coms economy is very fragile. Trump may know the weakness in order too take them down……… My guess would be importing of key raw materials.
LikeLiked by 3 people
It looks like Cruz has Kansas, and he has a slight (fewer than 200 votes with only 5% reporting) lead in Maine.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
LikeLiked by 1 person
Trump ahead in Kentucky, leading Cruz 39.4 to 35.7%. No results yet from Louisiana.
LikeLiked by 2 people
Trump up to 41.1, Cruz 32.5, 17% reporting.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Trump up to 41.9%, Cruz at 30.6, 20% reporting.
LikeLike
LikeLiked by 2 people
This is one of my all time favorites! Woo hoo!
LikeLiked by 2 people
I’ll be delighted if Rubio’s knocked out. Slimeball. Of course, then we’ll be stuck with the Mittens/Ryan tag team. Gag.A.Maggot. What a loser plan, GOPe, uptwinkles. 🙄
Louisiana’s not worth much, delegate wise – maybe the rest aren’t either, but we’re pretty solid Trump down here so if something untoward happens it’s from NOLA.
LikeLiked by 2 people
I’m not understanding what the hell are all the people who show up for Trump rallies doing on caucus and voting days? It seems to me a lot of Trump voters are too dumb to get out and vote.
LikeLiked by 1 person
They’re voting. Whole buncha Mississippi fraud going on if you ask me. Cacas are Shiite, anyway. GOPE is every bit as evil as dems.
LikeLiked by 4 people
Trump’s total votes come no where near to equalling his rally attendance numbers. So the voter fraud has to be massive, votes have to not be being counted and or switched. I just watched the numbers roll in for Maine and in one county Cruz got 1200 votes set against Trump getting something like 200. Something isn’t right.
LikeLiked by 1 person
No kidding.
LikeLiked by 2 people
😡
LikeLiked by 1 person
I’m with Wee I think they’re voting, but when you have cheating going on and Republicans bus them in and have dead voters just like Democrats, except they only care about spending the time and money on primaries, you have to have a lot more voters to overcome it.
LikeLiked by 3 people
Results, two minutes ago:
LikeLiked by 1 person
Cruz has won Maine.
LikeLike
Yup. Good news is that he’s below 50%, so he doesn’t get all of the delegates.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Cruz gets 12 delegates, Trump gets 9 🙂
LikeLike
I just got tickets to see The Don in Chicago. Then I noticed that the rally is going to be held at the University of Illinois at Chicago. This is crazy, it is a Liberal Bastion, I mean it is liberal even by todays university standards. Bill Ayers was an “esteemed” professor there. The campus is surrounded but some of the unsafest areas in Chicago and full of BLM activists, I mean it really is the belly of the breast.
I may not go and wait until he comes to WI or a safer area in Chicago. I was going to make a day of it and spend the night at a friends but I think it is really going to be an absolute mess surrounding the campus 😦 .
LikeLiked by 1 person
You are right about all of the above. Isn’t the stadium where the Bulls play in the same area?
LikeLike
They are about a mile apart. The United Center (Bulls/Hawks play there) neither area is great.
LikeLike
Sorry reading and posting at the same time. Neither area is great but both have a large police presence due to the university and to the stadium. I’m going to a Hawks game in about a week. I’ve never felt unsafe there because there are so many fellow game goers but the UIC area is different the campus if I remember correctly is gated and students are encouraged to never walk off campus.
LikeLike
🙂
LikeLike
LikeLike
Great minds. See below.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Louisiana called for Trump. Looks like he has Kentucky too.
LikeLiked by 1 person
The establishment voters seem to have followed Romney’s marching orders in Maine. Other than possible cheating that is the only thing that makes sense.
LikeLike
Didn’t the governor of Maine endorse Trump?
LikeLike
Yes.
LikeLike
Maybe the party has more pull than him?
I just don’t see how Rubio’s numbers could be so low and Cruz’ so high in Maine.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Trump is slipping in Kentucky. 38.2, Cruz 31.9, with 42% reporting.
LikeLike
Oddly enough just as Cruz begins to gain on Trump in Kentucky all the poll numbers just stopped coming in. Shenanigans.
I’m gonna need
or
LikeLiked by 1 person
Jefferson County results (Louisville) aren’t in yet.
LikeLike
Trump lead down to 4 % points 😐 I am very suspicious about why the votes are taking so long to come in.
LikeLike
It’s tightening up in Louisiana as well. I think something crooked is going on.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Yep, I just saw that, I wonder who is minding the vote.
LikeLiked by 2 people
Just starting to come in – Trump 30.1, Cruz 28.6. (Jefferson County)
LikeLike
I think that 5% buffer to offset voter fraud is going to have to be adjusted upward.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Kentucky has narrowed significantly.
LikeLike
Yep 😐. Talking head just said “Will the numbers change?”
LikeLike
As Sundance pointed out, McConnell’s party operations will withhold the KY numbers just as long as they can. It’s a game.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Same thing with Louisiana.
LikeLike
I saw that, and yep McConnell will twist the screws as hard as he can. Filthy human being.
LikeLiked by 1 person
I would take the latter, even if the results *did* come in. The Kentucky and Louisiana results were probably held up on purpose so that Trump couldn’t run to his press conference with good news. However, in the greatest of ironies, GOPe Mitch McConnell’s state (and even the county where he lives) went for Trump, as did GOPe Bobby Jindal’s state. Yeah!
LikeLiked by 2 people
CNN projecting Trump in Kentucky!
LikeLiked by 1 person
Just saw that at RCP.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Cruz definitely won the delegate count today. Too bad.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Sundance is saying that Trump won more delegates today. This delegate stuff is very confusing.
LikeLike
We won’t really see the complete picture until sometime tomorrow. That’s how it was on Super Tuesday too. I think it has to do with the congressional district delegates in some states.
LikeLike
I think they made the rules confusing on purpose.
LikeLiked by 1 person
I was just looking at RCP delegate count and as of now Trump has won 46, Cruz 60 but 28 delegates still haven’t been awarded, 5 in Kentucky and 23 in Louisiana.
Total delegate count right now is:
Trump – 375
Cruz – 291
Rubio – 123
Kasich – 33
LikeLiked by 2 people
Trump is still leading in the total delegate count, but he was second in delegates earned today.
LikeLike
I haven’t tried to add it up, I was just repeating what Sundance had written. Trump Wins Most Delegates of Day !!
LikeLike
I saw it. I wasn’t criticizing you – just wondering if the headline needs to be updated.
LikeLike
Maybe he’s looked at the districts? I honestly do not know.
LikeLike
I think it’s a headline from earlier. If not, then I can’t explain it.
LikeLike
Maybe so.
LikeLike
He links to Politico, and the delegate counts are right there.
LikeLike
If he’s wrong I wish he’d remove it because it will just be something else for people to run down CTH over.
LikeLike
I don’t know where Sundance gets that. I have Cruz with 64, and Trump with 49, at the moment.
LikeLike
RCP has your count, with 20 now outstanding. So if my math is correct Trump would need 18 of the 20 if the other two don’t get any of the delegates in order to win the delegate count of the day.
LikeLiked by 1 person
It’s a moving target! We’ll see more tomorrow or Monday.
LikeLike
I don’t know why they have to make it so difficult. With all the technology of today you’d think they’d be able to have this stuff figured out sooner.
LikeLike
One problem is that they call the state before all the votes are counted.
LikeLike
That gets old as well.
Still though with all these machines counting the votes you’d think it would be a faster process.
LikeLike
Sundance has removed it now.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Good.
LikeLiked by 1 person
I believe Cruz won more delegates today. Stella has the numbers right.
LikeLike
I just noticed that the total delegates for Kentucky at Politico are 46, and at RCP are 45. I think. I’m getting tired.
LikeLiked by 2 people
Bookmark this site — very handy!
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/republican_delegate_count.html
LikeLiked by 1 person
That is my go-to site!
LikeLike
Bookmaker Pays Out Early on Trump Winning Republican Nomination
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-02/bookmaker-pays-out-early-on-trump-winning-republican-nomination
Paddy Power Betfair Plc, Ireland’s largest bookmaker, is paying out 120,000 euros ($130,000) on Donald Trump winning the U.S. Republican presidential nomination.
LikeLike