Seen on Facebook:
….can you honestly tell me you expect the polling models to resemble 2012?
You think black voters, 25% of the needed votes Democrats crave, are going to vote in the same numbers for Hillary as they voted for Barack? You think all of them have forgotten about South Carolina in 2008?
If so, you don’t know black voters too well.
So, I don’t know why you give a damn about the Real Clear Politics polling. Almost all of them are following a 2012 model turnout *and* it’s a virtual guarantee they will slightly adjust more to reality when the week of the vote occurs.
Polling has been used to shape and handle the voting public, it is not primarily a tool to inform us. That is only its secondary purpose. I’m convinced of that.
Clearly, the business incentive in the polling industry has made this so. They need and want a “race,” a close sprint to the finish. This election cycle is the disruption of all of that. Trump is the quintessential disruptor. Thank goodness.
Trump wins in a landslide. That’s my story and I’m sticking with it. People genuinely don’t like Hillary. They’ve had to tar and feather Trump in an effort to even that out. It’s not going to work.
Stella's Place 
You know Stella this is how I view it
The polls and CNN and the rest of them can say what ever they want
As my GrandFather use to say…talk is cheap
I base what’s going on who’s in the lead by what my lyin’ eyes are looking at
And what they see…
Is Trump has 20,000+ at anyone and all of his current rallies
Crooked Hillary can barely muster up 100
TRUMP/PENCE 2016
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I am wondering about Florida.
1. Shouldn’t Trump be doing additional rallies?
2. Why are polls showing Hillary ahead in Florida?
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I’m betting he will be there a lot in the wake of Matthew. Hope Mar-a-Lago is not damaged.
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Crooked Hillary is not ahead anywhere
But there is concern
I read awhile back that this election will be rigged for a Hillary win
No surprise to any of us
Now how could they pull that off if Hillary isn’t leading in the polls
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Reblogged this on hocuspocus13 and commented:
❤
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This post is pitch-perfect. Ignore the polls, which increasingly do not show their polling data or methodology.
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Keep yourself focused on what you actually see don’t let yourself be fooled
Crooked Hillary had a rally in Ohio I believe yesterday no one showed up
Not even the media…
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Have you ever seen a Republican lead in the “Polls” for more than a week, how about two weeks….
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In Defense of the LA Times Poll
https://www.peoplespunditdaily.com/news/elections/2016/10/02/defense-la-times-poll/
After nearly a week of interviews conducted after the first presidential debate, Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton by roughly 5 points in the LA Times Poll, 46.9% to 42.2%. TV pundits have stuck to conventional political wisdom, despite the fact it has failed them at every turn this election cycle.
As a result, the LA Times Poll has been taking even more heat than it has in the previous several weeks, which is really saying something.
Last week, during an appearance on Fox News, Larry Sabato, whom we respect (so save your emails), insinuated “random sample polls” have shown an impact from the debate that favors Mrs. Clinton. It was an indirect dig at the LA Times Poll–and, the People’s Pundit Daily U.S. Presidential Election Daily Tracking Poll for that matter–a dig that has been repeated on Twitter by others like Sean Trende at Real Clear Politics.
But there’s something pretty damn significant missing from the conventional wisdom-based argument, something I think readers and election-watchers should know. In 2012, the model and methodology they are using, which was designed by the team behind the RAND Continuous Presidential Election Poll, or the “Daybreak Poll,” was was right when most other traditional random sample polls were wrong.
But that’s not it. It’s the reason why the model was right that is of particular significance to this election cycle. Let’s take a look at how they polled the 2012 presidential election between President Barack Obama and Gov. Mitt Romney, and their results.
Continued (with data; very interesting) …
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