Presidential Polls? Pfffft!

Seen on Facebook:

….can you honestly tell me you expect the polling models to resemble 2012?

You think black voters, 25% of the needed votes Democrats crave, are going to vote in the same numbers for Hillary as they voted for Barack? You think all of them have forgotten about South Carolina in 2008?

If so, you don’t know black voters too well.

So, I don’t know why you give a damn about the Real Clear Politics polling. Almost all of them are following a 2012 model turnout *and* it’s a virtual guarantee they will slightly adjust more to reality when the week of the vote occurs.

Polling has been used to shape and handle the voting public, it is not primarily a tool to inform us. That is only its secondary purpose. I’m convinced of that.

Clearly, the business incentive in the polling industry has made this so. They need and want a “race,” a close sprint to the finish. This election cycle is the disruption of all of that. Trump is the quintessential disruptor. Thank goodness.

Trump wins in a landslide. That’s my story and I’m sticking with it. People genuinely don’t like Hillary. They’ve had to tar and feather Trump in an effort to even that out. It’s not going to work.

LadyLibertyVotesTrump

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This entry was posted in 2016 Presidential Race, Politics, Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

9 Responses to Presidential Polls? Pfffft!

  1. hocuspocus13 says:

    You know Stella this is how I view it

    The polls and CNN and the rest of them can say what ever they want

    As my GrandFather use to say…talk is cheap

    I base what’s going on who’s in the lead by what my lyin’ eyes are looking at

    And what they see…

    Is Trump has 20,000+ at anyone and all of his current rallies

    Crooked Hillary can barely muster up 100

    TRUMP/PENCE 2016

    Liked by 2 people

  2. hocuspocus13 says:

    Reblogged this on hocuspocus13 and commented:
    󾓦❤󾓦

    Liked by 1 person

  3. ZurichMike says:

    This post is pitch-perfect. Ignore the polls, which increasingly do not show their polling data or methodology.

    Liked by 3 people

  4. Col (R) Ken says:

    Have you ever seen a Republican lead in the “Polls” for more than a week, how about two weeks….

    Like

  5. stella says:

    In Defense of the LA Times Poll

    https://www.peoplespunditdaily.com/news/elections/2016/10/02/defense-la-times-poll/

    After nearly a week of interviews conducted after the first presidential debate, Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton by roughly 5 points in the LA Times Poll, 46.9% to 42.2%. TV pundits have stuck to conventional political wisdom, despite the fact it has failed them at every turn this election cycle.

    As a result, the LA Times Poll has been taking even more heat than it has in the previous several weeks, which is really saying something.

    Last week, during an appearance on Fox News, Larry Sabato, whom we respect (so save your emails), insinuated “random sample polls” have shown an impact from the debate that favors Mrs. Clinton. It was an indirect dig at the LA Times Poll–and, the People’s Pundit Daily U.S. Presidential Election Daily Tracking Poll for that matter–a dig that has been repeated on Twitter by others like Sean Trende at Real Clear Politics.

    But there’s something pretty damn significant missing from the conventional wisdom-based argument, something I think readers and election-watchers should know. In 2012, the model and methodology they are using, which was designed by the team behind the RAND Continuous Presidential Election Poll, or the “Daybreak Poll,” was was right when most other traditional random sample polls were wrong.

    But that’s not it. It’s the reason why the model was right that is of particular significance to this election cycle. Let’s take a look at how they polled the 2012 presidential election between President Barack Obama and Gov. Mitt Romney, and their results.

    Continued (with data; very interesting) …

    Like

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