Election Analysis – projection inaccuracies, and what they didn’t say

H/T to FB friend Ken Danieli.

In 2014, RealClearPolitics labeled 30 House seats as “Toss Ups.” — Too close to call at the end. Republicans won 70% of those seats, Dems 30%.

In 2016, it was 20 Toss Ups. GOP won 80%, Dems 20%.

In 2018, RCP has 38 Toss Ups, more than the prior two cycles, declaring 1 out of every 11 House Races “too close to call.”

If the actual Election Day results are similar to 2014 or 2016, GOP holds the House.

If Dems win twice the % of Toss Ups as they did in 2016, it gets them to 218.

In a related “it’s right there in RCP if you’d just actually look at it” analysis, in 2016, the Final RCP No Toss Ups Electoral Map had Trump only 3 Electoral Votes from victory. It’s a map that everyone could see but no one reported on. I don’t recall a single report that “according to RCP, Trump just needs 3 more Electoral Votes to win” on the days before or day of the Election. The media just chose to leave the toss ups out and show “Clinton has 203 EVs and Trump has only 164,” (with 171 Toss Ups)…. so she’s certainly gonna win.

Trump won by 77 Electoral Votes.

The mostly liberal media uses RCP as its Polling Bible, and pays for the polls that go into the RCP averages, but fails to report everything that their own Bible tells them. But I didn’t see conservative media report this data-based analysis either. Trump also had the momentum, if not the lead, in the national polls on the same site. Momentum is a very real thing.

 

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This entry was posted in 2016 Presidential Race, 2018 Election, Politics, Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

41 Responses to Election Analysis – projection inaccuracies, and what they didn’t say

  1. michellc says:

    I just got back from voting, it’s just a little crazy for a midterm election even at my little rural Church voting place. The parking lot was totally full, had to wait for someone to leave before I could even pull in. Thankfully by the time I got in many were heading out so I didn’t have to wait that long to vote.
    I don’t know exactly what it means, especially as nuts as our state has went this year, but I overheard the lady checking you in tell a friend of hers that she’s barely opened the democrat roll book.

    Liked by 5 people

  2. stella says:

    Liked by 5 people

  3. stella says:

    Good news for Florida, if true:

    Liked by 4 people

  4. Lucille says:

    Graham Unleashed! Never too late to jump on the Trump Train…but he does have a bit of make-up to do what with the Middle East interference.

    Liked by 3 people

  5. tessa50 says:

    Still watching Ocasio-Cortez. She needs to lose.

    Liked by 1 person

    • czarowniczy says:

      With 94% of the precincts in she has 78.7% of the votes…closest competitor is at 13.3%, not looking good.

      Liked by 1 person

      • tessa50 says:

        Makes me sick, but she won. They have elected a total and complete moron. I’m not a happy camper with the dems taking the house.

        Liked by 1 person

        • czarowniczy says:

          It’s a redistricted district. It’s almost half hispanic, 11% black and 17% Asian. Funny how when the redistrict hispanics are mostly considered white as it helps swing the demographics in the Rat’s favor.

          Liked by 1 person

        • czarowniczy says:

          I see it as freeloaders electing the engine they hope will make their freeloading more profitable.

          Liked by 2 people

        • czarowniczy says:

          I can’t find the medial income figures for the district but I do see it has over 9% unemployment so that should point one’s nose in a direction.

          Like

          • tessa50 says:

            Helping someone who doesn’t want to work when they are able to gets on my nerves. I have seen too much. Too many people who can’t support themselves and just keep having babies and the government just keeps supporting them. People who hit legitimate bad times struggle to qualify. We are so screwed up in this country. I really can’t believe some of these elections tonight. I guess I hadn’t realized there were so many people who think that way.

            Like

            • czarowniczy says:

              We have new generations of voters voting who believe that Santa Claus and the Easter Bunny are Democrats.

              Like

              • tessa50 says:

                I don’t have a bright outlook for our country at the moment. Am waiting to see what happens with these caravans. As far as I am concerned, I don’t want even want one to cross our border. I don’t understand at all why we are building tent cities.

                Like

                • czarowniczy says:

                  I’m buying more ammo, food and medical supplies. We’re seeing red states being turned blueish by the Rats managing to assign immigrants to purple areas to tip the scales. No, I do not feel the outlook’s brillante y soleado at all.

                  Liked by 1 person

                  • tessa50 says:

                    These idiots saying these people should be allowed in have no idea that the ones coming in will steal their freebies. Blind leading the blind.

                    Like

                  • czarowniczy says:

                    They’ve been brainwashed by decades of BS fed ton them in the educational system and in the media. They ignore the barrios and ghettos and their related crime, they believe that if we just let them out to be what they really are we’ll have Latin dancing in the streets, it will be a nationwide TV sitcom.

                    Liked by 1 person

                  • tessa50 says:

                    I’ll tell ya one thing. Trump said clearly and more than once that not one will cross the border.. He better make that happen or I will know we are doomed.

                    Like

                  • czarowniczy says:

                    Of that there is no doubt. Thousands upon thousands of non-English speaking semi-educated folks who’ll not only be dependent upon tax dollars for decades to come but don’t seem to be as interested in becoming true Americans as they are moving their culture here and forming a Little Latin America at our expense.

                    Liked by 1 person

  6. Sorry I didn’t read all the comments here…but when the Broward County (et al) voter fraud fiasco is done & all the (actually legal) votes are counted it would be quite interesting to compare the RCP toss ups vs the actual results. Given Trump’s enthusiastic rally crowds it seems unlikely that overall conservative voter enthusiasm would be so much less than the elections cited in your post. If the percentages are significantly skewed left what would that say/mean? It would also be interesting to extend the RCP data further backward in time to check out overall trends (if the data is available)…

    Like

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