H/T to FB friend Ken Danieli.
In 2014, RealClearPolitics labeled 30 House seats as “Toss Ups.” — Too close to call at the end. Republicans won 70% of those seats, Dems 30%.
In 2016, it was 20 Toss Ups. GOP won 80%, Dems 20%.
In 2018, RCP has 38 Toss Ups, more than the prior two cycles, declaring 1 out of every 11 House Races “too close to call.”
If the actual Election Day results are similar to 2014 or 2016, GOP holds the House.
If Dems win twice the % of Toss Ups as they did in 2016, it gets them to 218.
In a related “it’s right there in RCP if you’d just actually look at it” analysis, in 2016, the Final RCP No Toss Ups Electoral Map had Trump only 3 Electoral Votes from victory. It’s a map that everyone could see but no one reported on. I don’t recall a single report that “according to RCP, Trump just needs 3 more Electoral Votes to win” on the days before or day of the Election. The media just chose to leave the toss ups out and show “Clinton has 203 EVs and Trump has only 164,” (with 171 Toss Ups)…. so she’s certainly gonna win.
Trump won by 77 Electoral Votes.
The mostly liberal media uses RCP as its Polling Bible, and pays for the polls that go into the RCP averages, but fails to report everything that their own Bible tells them. But I didn’t see conservative media report this data-based analysis either. Trump also had the momentum, if not the lead, in the national polls on the same site. Momentum is a very real thing.