Hurricane Irma. “How Do They Know When it will Turn North?”

Juan Browne is a fascinating guy, who is terrific at explaining stuff. He was first introduced to me by our friend Sharon, when he started posting updates on the Oroville Dam spillway collapse early this year.

Thanks to Lucille for posting this video on the CTH latest thread about Hurricane Irma.

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35 Responses to Hurricane Irma. “How Do They Know When it will Turn North?”

  1. MaryfromMarin says:

    That was very informative, thank you!

    Liked by 2 people

  2. auscitizenmom says:

    Well, that was interesting. I never even thought to ask why hurricanes seem to start off the coast of Africa. 😕

    Liked by 3 people

    • stella says:

      I didn’t either!

      Liked by 1 person

      • auscitizenmom says:

        Also, he made it clear why it is so hard to forecast a hurricane.

        Liked by 2 people

        • This video made a lot of things clear, that I knew, and that I didn’t remember that I knew. He’s right, they need to bring back the old millibar high/low maps on TV weather.

          Like the old math, it’s better than the new math, instructionally. And, like he said, the commercial pilots have weather in their heads, and on their maps, and they understand it all — probably better than most of the paid actors on the TeeVee, even (and maybe especially) The Weather Channel — and can explain it better than those AGW hookers too.

          Liked by 2 people

    • Wooly Covfefe says:

      All the bad things come from Africa. Football and Basketball coaches may tend to disagree with that, I know. Same with record producers.

      Israel and Europe would have done better continuing to colonize it, and defying their ejection from it. There would be no more sand to put into the atmosphere. They’d have used the sand, for glass and for iron foundries, and they’d have made the Sahara into a giant green food-farm for everyone. But, alas. The continent which never invented ships kicked all the people out who could have made the desert green. And exported their people here, and to Israel, and to Europe, en-masse, so that our nations may one day also be as barren as theirs.

      But no, the Dutch, French, and English, not to mention Israel, said, “Okay, we’ll leave you to your devices. Oh, and you’re all welcome to colonize us.”

      Liked by 1 person

  3. Thank you. I was wondering that, as I said earlier, as well.

    It still doesn’t seem like she’s even got her turn signal on. Still tracking straight west toward the Gulf.

    Liked by 2 people

      • Now I’m sure. My dad said the same thing this morning on the phone, when I was doubting the cone projections.

        I pray she turns later than expected, though. I’m glad she didn’t plow her way up the whole peninsula.

        Liked by 3 people

        • stella says:

          The storm is so wide (I think they said the size of the state of Ohio), that it can’t possibly miss Florida at this point. Here is the 8:00 pm forecast from the National Hurricane Center:

          http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/213811.shtml?cone#contents

          Liked by 3 people

          • Wooly Covfefe says:

            I know. What worries me about my folks is that they will be subjected to that higher-wind-velocity northeast quarter of the hurricane, whereas they wouldn’t have had it veered north on the east coast. And the wind will be blowing to the north when it does. I hope the four giant pine trees can stand it.

            Liked by 3 people

            • lovely says:

              Do you know if your folks plan on going to their neighbor’s house?

              Liked by 1 person

              • They’ve made a bunker under a well-constructed loft in “my” bedroom. (When I get a chance to go down there…) Surrounded by ginourmous wooden beams. The neighbor’s place is a short run away, out the back door, or the front.

                They’s wise.

                I remember when I was like 6 or so, when a tornado almost took out our whole neighborhood (it only took out about 50% of it). It was like 5:00 AM. Our little house was untouched. Dad flipped the couch over, and we all got under it. Mom later said she saw, as if it was a hallucination, 20-foot tall angels surrounding the house. (It was a very little house.) Our bikes were still standing on their kickstands. The giant tree next to our shack was sheared off about a foot above our shack, and fell into the empty lot next door. There was a 25-foot wide path carved through the woods across from our house.

                The only damage our property sustained was the dealer logo plate got knocked off the Chevy Chevette.

                Liked by 2 people

                • lovely says:

                  Praying that those very angels return and remain steadfast against the storm.

                  Liked by 2 people

                • IOW

                  The tornado jumped over our house, as we were praying, under an overturned couch.

                  The rich lady across the street scared the s*** out of us all, during the tornado, and knocked furiously on the back door. We all about pooped ourselves, because IT’S STILL HAPPENING, and Dad gets up and lets her in, and she climbs under the couch with us, and she was spooked as heck because she just saw fire coming out of her wall-mounted old-school rotary AT&T phone. And with that, she spooked us all.

                  Whole neighborhood got messed up. It was a tornado (of several) spawned by a giant tornado in Kalamazoo, that is legendary for Michigan. I don’t actually remember how old i was, or what year. All I know is our lot experienced no damage, whatsoever.

                  Liked by 2 people

                  • stella says:

                    If there is bad weather in west Michigan, you can be sure it will hit Kalamazoo.

                    Liked by 3 people

                  • That Kzoo tornado sent other child tornadoes in every direction. We were in Watervliet, on Paw Paw Lake. Our hood got squashed by a child tornado from that big one. Maybe more than one. Me and my bro took a bunch of 110 pics of the devastation and the flood. i wish I knew what happened to those pics. We didn’t have power for more than a week.

                    Liked by 2 people

  4. Lucille says:

    Everyone, please consider clicking through to Juan’s YouTube channel and subscribing. Hit the bell next to the red subscribe button so you’ll get notifications of when he’s posted a new vid.

    Juan is a USAF vet and an airline captain, I think for American. He also has a prop plane he calls The Mighty Luscombe which he uses in his work for a local newspaper re the California Oroville Dam near-disaster and ongoing repair/replace of the spillway.

    I also get the feeling, though he never mentions specific politics, that he’s NOT a nutty California progressive. All the more reason for my wanting to support his YouTube channel.

    Liked by 2 people

    • Gil says:

      Its likely he isnt a nutter. Most look nutty and or proudly/stupidly proclaim it. A sense of thoughtfulness and silence about politics here in CA is often a tell for political conservatism. He also doesnt want someone to try to get him fired for non pc speech.

      Liked by 2 people

  5. Not that everyone here doesn’t already have this bookmarked,

    http://www.wjhg.com/templates/2015_Fullscreen_Radar

    If you zoom out to planetary scale, use the hamburger button at the bottom right, and select radar+satellite, and hit the play button, you’ll see how immense this hurricane is, because it’s affecting Great Britain. Wish I knew how to make a gif out of it. Irma is causing weather events in England and Scotland.

    Like

  6. Last frame, Irma just headed North.

    Like

  7. Gil says:

    He is a pleasant instructor. I saw an Oroville video of his earlier. This was very helpful. I dont understand a lot of the technical posts, as informative for some they may be. Gotta get some basics first!

    Liked by 1 person

  8. stella says:

    Good live coverage from local station in SW Florida (Charlotte County).

    http://www.nbc-2.com/category/300756/nbc2-247-streaming-video

    Like

  9. czarowniczy says:

    I think a better title would be ‘How Do They Know It Will Eventually Turn North’. Those of us with Katrina experience remember the 100% for sure three day track that showed it coming of the wedt coadt of Florida then turning straight north for the Big Bend area in the panhandle. It came off, turned southwest, traveled that direction for a bit and then turned northwest and made a beeline for NOLA.
    Irma was authoritatively said to be turning northeast thru the Bahamas, then up the Florida east coast and up to New England, then hours later up thru the center of the state then a few more hours later up the west coast and into northern Mississippi.
    The physics of why and how they form and move are known, we can even guestimate where they’re going. Right now they’re showing Jose going in circles in the Atlantic, which to those of us in the upper Gulf suggests their Magic 8 Ball is on the fritz. Man proposes, God disposes.

    Liked by 1 person

    • stella says:

      Did you watch the video? He explains how they know. Also, there’s a difference between 3 days out and less than 24 hours out. Irma has already started to turn north.

      Liked by 1 person

      • czarowniczy says:

        No. We live in a hurricane ground zero and local TV starts hitting us over the head in April the first prediction of the season and relentless hurricane prep coverage getting us emotionally primed for the season. It goes on nonstop until December when we get a recap of the season.
        My post was more of a reaction to what y’all see as the cable coverage and the locally adjusted ‘fright TV’ we see. You see the track predictions from the perspective of the outsider, rather detached as it’s a form entertainment rather than imminent destruction bearing down on you, and we have local TV stations each trying to ‘adjust’ their delivery to keep you pinned to them.
        We’ve been through the knuckle-chewing experience of having sincere sounding folks from the NWS and NHC telling us that the three day track is here or there on more than a few hurricanes that have gone to a totally different place, all to frequently where we were rather than where they said it would go. To them it’s a dispassionate job, it’s perfecting their predictions that even super computers can’t get much better than ‘close enough for government work’.
        We, the folks on the northern Gulf, are quite aware of how and wher hurticanes are spawned, when the African, Caribbean and Gulf seasons are. How upper lows and low-level lows figure in, upper and lower level shear, the effect of the Gulf Loop Current. How those areas of dry air get sucked in, as they are with Irma, effect the storm’s strength, how interaction with different land types work…we’re bestbto death from April thru November. And we still don’t know where it’s going until it gets there, a game of successive approximations with a Greek chorus.
        Right now we’re suffering from weeks of Harvey and Irma shock, weeks of ‘it’s going here…it’s going there…it might come here and kill hundreds in a prolonged and agonizing death…it probanly won’t’, and today is just the statistical peak of the hurticane season.
        Just the wrong day for that title.

        Liked by 1 person

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