The rules for how Republican delegates are selected — which differ in every state — could end up turning votes for one candidate into delegates who will support another candidate at the convention.
When voters cast ballots in the presidential primaries, they are really voting for delegates.
Those delegates, in turn, are the actual people who will vote on the party’s nominee at the summer convention.
In a few states, candidates pick their delegates outright, but in most cases they have less control. Many delegates are elected by party members at local and state conventions. The candidates often conduct parallel campaigns to get their supporters named as delegates.
Here are examples of the variety of methods for selecting delegates used in different states. In fact, many states use two or more methods.
When they get to the convention, most delegates are “bound” to vote for the candidate voters have chosen in their state or district. But if no candidate gets the 1,237 delegates needed to win, subsequent votes will be held until someone does.
This is where the loyalty of each of the 2,472 delegates really matters. Most states “unbind” their delegates after the first or second vote. Then each delegate can vote for whomever they want.
….
In 2012, supporters of Representative Ron Paul, the last remaining Republican challenger to Mitt Romney, fought to secure delegates at local and state conventions, particularly in states where those delegates were not tied to election results.
The Iowa delegation, for example, was made up primarily of Mr. Paul’s supporters, even though Mr. Romney and Rick Santorum essentially tied for first in the state’s caucuses.
These tactics did not go over smoothly at the convention. Half of Mr. Paul’s delegates from Maine were unseated, and his supporters erupted with anger after Mr. Romney’s allies passed new rules to prevent Mr. Paul from qualifying for the first nomination vote on the floor.
Read more about possibilities for the convention at The New York Times.
Before the era of presidential primary elections, political party conventions were routinely brokered. Adlai Stevenson (of the 1952 Democratic Party) and Thomas Dewey (of the 1948 Republican Party) were the most recent “brokered convention” presidential nominees. The last winning U.S. presidential nominee produced by a brokered convention was Franklin D. Roosevelt, in 1932. (Data from Wikipedia)
Interesting – Four years ago, Red State was calling for a brokered convention, because Mitt Romney wasn’t conservative:
A convention is more democratic than that because all states send delegates to defend their interests. So don’t tell me a convention that actually selects the nominee is somehow invalid. Barry Goldwater as nominated by a conservative movement maneuvering in a convention.
Next, do we need a brokered convention this year? Yes! Mitt Romney is not a conservative. His defining characteristic is his ambition.
Ted Cruz is doing his damnedest to turn delegates. Reported in the Times-Picayune:
Donald Trump defeated Sen. Ted Cruz by 3.6 percentage points this month in Louisiana’s Republican presidential primary, but the Wall Street Journal reports that the “Texan may wind up with as many as 10 more delegates from the state than the businessman.”
The newspaper reported that Cruz’s supporters “also seized five of Louisiana’s six slots on the three powerful committees that will write the rules and platform at the Republican National Convention and mediate disputes over delegates’ eligibility this summer in Cleveland.”
“The little-noticed inside maneuvering that led to this outcome in Louisiana is another dramatic illustration of the inside game that could have an outsize influence on the bitter race for the GOP nomination,” the Journal says.
Right now, it is clear that Trump (and his supporters) must do whatever possible to insure that he has the 1,237 delegates necessary to clinch the Republican nomination BEFORE the convention. What are his chances? I think they pretty good right now. Here is the rundown of the remaining primaries:
| Total | |||
| Date | State | Type | Delegates |
| 04/01/16 | North Dakota | C | 28 |
| 04/05/16 | Wisconsin | P | 42 |
| 04/19/16 | New York | P | 95 |
| 04/26/16 | Connecticut | P | 28 |
| 04/26/16 | Delaware | P | 16 |
| 04/26/16 | Maryland | P | 38 |
| 04/26/16 | Pennsylvania | P | 71 |
| 04/26/16 | Rhode Island | P | 19 |
| 05/03/16 | Indiana | P | 57 |
| 05/10/16 | Nebraska | P | 36 |
| 05/10/16 | West Virginia | P | 34 |
| 05/17/16 | Oregon | P | 28 |
| 05/24/16 | Washington | P | 44 |
| 06/07/16 | California | P | 172 |
| 06/07/16 | Montana | P | 27 |
| 06/07/16 | New Jersey | P | 51 |
| 06/07/16 | New Mexico | P | 24 |
| 06/07/16 | South Dakota | P | 29 |
What’s happening in April:
April 1: The North Dakota Caucus selects their delegates at a convention; no citizen votes. (28)
April 5: Wisconsin looks like a dead heat right now between Cruz and Trump. In Wisconsin, eight eighteen delegates are awarded to the state winner, and the remaining 24 delegates are distributed by district – the winner of each of the eight districts receives 3 votes.
April 19: Trump has a very healthy lead in his home state of New York (RCP Average today is +36 points). New York holds a closed primary, and awards its 95 delegates proportionally, and delegates are also awarded by district (11 at large, 81 by district, 3 automatic), but a candidate must earn at least 20% of the vote in order to earn delegates. Cruz may not meet that threshold, based on polls; his RCP average is 15.6. Kasich’s is higher, but still less than 20%. Since the New York Republican Party changed the rules about picking delegates (they will, not the candidates), this could work against Trump at a brokered convention.
There are five primaries on April 26: Connecticut (28), Delaware (16), Maryland (38), Pennsylvania (71), and Rhode Island (19). The first four are closed primaries. Rhode Island’s is open to Republicans and Independents. Connecticut and Rhode Island award delegates proportionally; the other three states are Winner Take All. In all but Delaware, delegates are also awarded by district.
Connecticut has a 20% threshold to earn delegates. There are no recent polls in CT, but Trump had a healthy lead at the end of last year, when there were still 12 candidates in the race. There is one poll taken in Rhode Island at the end of February; Trump had an 18% lead over Rubio at that time, when there were still five candidates running. Rubio was also polling pretty well then, so we will have to see where his votes will go. There is a 10% threshold in Rhode Island.
There are no polls in Delaware. Maryland’s latest poll shows Trump with a 9% lead (his lead has softened, and Cruz is gaining). In Pennsylvania, Trump is leading, but Kasich is gaining.
Good information about primaries and delegate rules: Frontloading HQ
Good information about primaries and polls: Real Clear Politics
Stella's Place 
I think this is a very good explanation of what happens. {sigh} But, it kinda makes me sick to my stomach to know this is how things are done.
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I always feel better when I know what to expect – even if it’s not so good.
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I want to turn off the TV, put a pillowcase over my head, and take it off next spring. 😦
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I agree with you about the television!
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Next year will be 15 years for me.
And no talk radio for almost 10.
I’ll read and not be shouted at, thank you very much.
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Advantage of an analog TV;
converter sits in unopened box.
Cannot watch what you cannot watch. 😉
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Fox Business just came out with a poll showing Cruz +10 in Wisconsin, margin of error 3.5%, 742 likely Republican primary voters.
PPP’s poll yesterday showed Cruz +1, margin of error 3.5%, 768 likely R primary voters.
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I do believe I’ve mentioned my little problem where my radio’s stuck on NPR. Well today I was listening to them and they agreed with me, to the point of glosting, that Trump’s pretty well lost the election as he’s been seperated from various important segments of the electorate, especially women.
Once again it’s been made obvious that the electorate’s job in the system is to eat one of the meals served! No meddling with the menu or in the kitchen, just pony up to the table and dig in. Trump angered the Rats by capitalizing on the dissatisfaction felt by the people of all parties and PO’d the RINOs by daring to introduce democracy into the picture.
Let’s not forget Trump’s driving into the political wilderness with a business map and not using experienced guides. He’s managed to make a trunk full of open-mouth-insert-foot errors he might have avoided had he hired people whose job it was to navigate the political swamps, handing his opponents the gafs they needed to skewer him. That included the RINO elite who were upset their little puppet was rejected for Trump early on, and his efforts to capitalize on their perfidy were limited, at best.
We can cheer on the people and their place in a pure democracy but the truth is that our position has been relegated to eating what we’re served long ago and there just ain’t that many folks interested in changing it. Barring a sudden interest by a majority of the electorate in resurrecting democracy I don’t see things changing. If Hillary wins I see an even bleaker future in store as the Rats will have eight years to further increase its herds of entitlement sheep, their very existence will depend on their reelecting their keepers yearly. That LBJ plan is coming along nicely,..
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Once again it’s been made obvious that the electorate’s job in the system is to eat one of the meals served! No meddling with the menu or in the kitchen, just pony up to the table and dig in.
Quotable.
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Also quite obvious, even if we ignore the RINO elite openly telling us so.
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I like the cut of your jib, Czar. Furthermore, I’d like to subscribe to your newsletter.
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Nobody’s perfect, Czar.
But, aside from Trump, nobody’s an outsider.
And nobody hasn’t long been bought.
I’m still on board. Despite the last week’s news re: his abortion gaffes.
He’s better than the rest, still, and after all, I hope he will remain so.
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IMO, the abortion gaffes weren’t gaffes at all. His answer to the question was clear and sensible. The question, and the way it is being reported, are the problems.
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Yes, and he reversed his answer an hour or so later.
“Why?”, one might ask.
Because he realized he was wrong when he shot off his mouth.
I like a candidate that can admit error.
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At what point did the captain of the Titanic feel absolved after he admitted hitting the iceberg?
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My point is less about absolution than about the capacity to learn.
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I bet that Cap’n didn’t ever hit another iceberg.
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Congradulations, you are now officially a finalist for Reince’s job
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“Wooly Preibus.”
Nope. Don’t like it.
Will you elaborate?
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Seems the Party didn’t learn #### since 1992. Bush II’s win in 2000 was luck and in 2004 he won by the narrowest margin ever for an incumbent, even while running against a guy who had the personality of a mortician. They learned what? If Darwin’s correct we dodos are on the way out.
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Not an equivalent. The reversal was an error. The original statement was not.
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The reversal was an intelligent course correction.
Punish the would-be moms? Instead of the so-called “providers”?
One of these categories of people, Stella, “knows not what they do”.
The other sells the baby parts for cash money.
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I’m not arguing with you!
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They are both wrong. Education about what is wrong about abortion, at the very least, not to mention birth control methods. Community service.
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I don’t agree with you, that they know not what they do. Were it illegal, punish both.
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They set Trump up and he should have seen it and punted the question back as I answered. It wasn’t a yes or no answer, he could have/should have put it squarely back into the area it really belongs in – the Judicial and not. The Executive branch.
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A politician would have done just that. He is not one.
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That’s my opinion as well. I had no problem with what he said because you can’t have something illegal and no consequences for breaking the law. I did not like his reversal.
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People are looking for a candidate who is free from error are going to come up empty-handed this November.
People looking for a candidate who will blame any and all of their personal errors on someone else, or some other entity, or some other ethnic group, or some other nation will have a lot to choose from.
Trump learned something this week.
The rest of them don’t believe they have anything to learn.
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Folks, it’s like an Artificial Intelligence competition, here.
Only one candidate has shown that he has the capacity to LEARN, and to CHANGE HIS STANCE based on what he had learned.
That says to me that Donald is not only intelligent, but adaptive.
Who else has shown this ability, that is running?
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Actually, I disagree with the second position. If someone breaks a law, there should be punishment of some sort. Maybe education classes, or community service, helping other women perhaps. But something.
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I agree. Economics. If you subsidize something, you get more of it, and if you tax or fine something you get less of it.
USA has long been subsidizing abortion.
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I guess I’m hard on this issue, but if we are going to jail peeps for doing drugs, then I think jail would be appropiate for the murder of a child.
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The gaff was his blurting that answer right out there, it was respun by the MSM, Rats and RINOs trying to skewer him. We all know that policy and promises cement the dedicated but the battle’s for the hearts, minds and votes of the short attention span undecideds.
Rats have the advantage with the LBJ crowd so all they have to do is use their bullysh$t pulpit to sway a few more their way and/or keep disaffected voters from voting for Trump. With the RINO help they’ve been receiving that dhouldn’t be too hard.
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Look – once that question was asked, there was no winning for Trump. No matter what he said, it would be spun as a negative. He also asked Matthews how he can square support for abortion with his Catholic faith. How much has that been reported?
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With so many Evil entities trying to lay so many traps…
I can’t really help but support the man.
Especially as we see him learn this game, each move.
He’s Real Estate, not Politics. Reagan was Hollywood, not Politics.
Reagan also showed that he could learn.
Unlike these stupid AI’s in our government who are told each hour how they already know everything there is to know.
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True dat, but he went and made the situation more worser. I’d have said that at that point it would become an issue for the courts and not a sitting president. A mealy-mouthed obvious avoidance of the issue but (a) the type of answer a handler would have suggedted and (b) less damaging.
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Trump has a fault in that he treats people as if they are earnest, even after they have shown their true colors Trump generally goes by old school etiquette. He talks about how dishonest and terrible the press is but if you watch his interviews unless the interviewer is grotesquely rude Trump treats them as if their questions sincere . I believe this is a negotiating tactic that has served Trump well in the business world because discussions are part of the process and getting along as well as possible is the tactic which garners the most beneficial result to Trump’s empire.
Trump is in new territory and he is changing his tactics as time goes by. I like when he says “excuse me” as soon as the interviewer starts to obnoxiously narrated story rather than conduct an interview.
Crap like the abortion question and the way Mathews badgered Trump and looped the premise of punishing women for killing their babies (which by the way is Ok with me) was really Mathews controlling and confusing the question. Trump doesn’t often get caught by this but he did this time.
Trump’s best answer would have been “That is not a question for the Executive Branch”. It would have been a fantastic moment for Trump to tell Mr. Tingles that one of the goals of a Trump presidency is going to be to sharpen the blurred lines between the branches of government, one are which really needs work is the Judicial Branch take over of the Legislative Branch.
I think Trump’s mind works like all geniuses on several levels at one time. I think a large part of his thought process right now is focused on what Stella’s article is about which is the stealing of an election and how to right that ship.
PS Stella The winner of WI gets 18 delegates the 8 congressional districts each distribute 3.
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Didn’t I say that about Wisconsin? I knew it.
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You put an 8 instead of an eighteen so just a typo likely.
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Fixed it!
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Didn’t I say that about Wisconsin? I knew it. Never mind. I wrote eight instead of eighteen. Sorry!
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Trump’s a brilliant guy but he’s in a different world running for a national political office and this is where the services of those who created the playing field are required. I’m sure he’s getting whoever he can but he’s unique in that he’s not only taking incoming from the bad guys but the good guys are laying fire on him too.
We agree on what his answer on the abortion question should have been, zactly what I said about a dozen or so brick bats or so ago. On MSNBC no less, deep in enemy territory and he fell for a flanking maneuver. That’s why you need the best as you’re going up against the enemy’s best, this is what they do for a living.
All elections are more or less stolen, the higher you go in the power chain and the greater the degree if theft. I’ve watched elections that were decided in secret before the candidate’s opponent was even announced, even worked as a bag man (statute of limitations is over on that one), amazing what part $$$$$$$ plays in an election. Over the last thirty years or so it’s become a matter of negative campaigning, not as much making your candidate look better than the opposition but making the opposition look worse than your guy.
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I don’t believe Trump needs “handlers” which is my understanding of what you are suggesting. Trump understands the game and he has said again and again that he is not going to change who he is to get elected. Trump is going to learn the their game and beat them at it.
He has already said that two of the people who he respects the most in the world have too him to do things differently and he has shrugged his shoulders and and said “I can’t be anything but me.”
There are incidents where I would have preferred Trump answer the question differently but so far it has not eroded his base. Trump is doing well and this answer about abortion will do absolutely nothing to harm him in Chicago.
I suspect Trump will improve as goes through the process. There is only so much one man can do, and he simply can’t always give the best answer.
I think you are still viewing Trump through conventional election eyes but the game has changed so I don’t think Trump’s true gaffes (the 3 most important functions of government are security, education and health care) or manufactured gaffes (punish people who break the law 🙄 ) .
Now the good guys are laying fire on him are in my opinion not good guys at all and they a far greater danger to Trump than his personal interactions with interviewers.
My belief is that Tingles, Kelly, Priebus, Obama, Ryan, Krauthammer, Clinton, are all cut from the same cloth that has been dipped in poison and they will turn anything Trump says into something toxic, Trump can only be so careful as to not give them material that lends itself to their agenda because their agenda allows them to twist whatever Trump says into whatever they think will damage Trump.
Tump for his part must simply keep saying”Excuse me” and correcting their lies. And avoid true gaffes to the best of his ability.
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*Harm him in Wisconsin, not sure where I pulled Chicago out of.
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Maybe my point on handlers is just not getting across so I’m going to just drop it. Let’s see on November 8th, providing he gets that far, what happens. Who knows, maybe he will navigate the political haunted house created by others, we’ll see.
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Sorry for all the typos.
He has already said that two of the people who he respects the most in the world have told him to do things differently and he has shrugged his shoulders and and said “I can’t be anything but me.”
And
I think you are still viewing Trump through conventional election eyes but the game has changed so I don’t think Trump’s true gaffes (the 3 most important functions of government are security, education and health care) or manufactured gaffes (punish people who break the law🙄 ) . harm him as they would another target of the PTB.
SMH
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Nowadays they call whatever they want to make a deal out of gaffes. Most of them aren’t they are just mis-reported, exaggerated, and taken out of context. The press has the power to make gaffes, as they call them, happen, and they use it.
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Yup. He could have burped the alphabet and it would have been spun as a negative and not ready for the oval office.
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Butvwhen the MSM hates your guts and your own party’s out to kill you there’s no sense in handing them more ammo to shoot at you. RINOs have been having as good a time whacking Trump with this answer as the Rats have.
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I don’t have a problem with the question, and as far as the way it is being reported, is same old same old. I didn’t have a problem with his answer either. What was he supposed to say, yeah, if it were illegal in this country and a woman did it anyway, no crime? No punishment?
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Right, and the closer you are made to appear perfect the more likly you are to be elected. That’s why successful candidates hire professional ha dlers, a lot like why we don’t rewire our homes ourselves. Regardless of how good a product is it requires a professional sales and marketing campaign.
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If he had a professional handler he would come off as fake and wouldn’t have the appeal he has. His off the cuff style, speaking as a business man and regular folk, no speech writers, no circling all around a question without ever answering the question is what most of his supporters want and it’s what draws people to him.
I myself was drawn to him because it was obvious who the elites were against and who they were scared of. I begin to like a man I once couldn’t stand because he’s blunt and when you listen to him awhile you get there is a kind man under the tough exterior.
I expect him to say things that make me roll eyes, but will make someone else cheer. I expect him to say things I don’t agree with that others will agree with. I expect him to say things I agree with and others will disagree.
It’s no different than in my own household, in my circle of friends and family or even amongst those of us who have became an online family here. That is why people like him and stand in line for hours to see and hear him and that is why people vote for him. Of course we all want secure borders, the law enforced when it comes to illegals and common sense when it comes to Moslems, American jobs and America first.
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And I’m sure that a lot of people feel like you but in an election the winner is the one who touches all of those correct buttons that profesional handlers know and find. It’s how everything from vegetables to garden hose is sold, you find the needs and fill them, find the fears and salve them.
A professional handler makes the candidate fill th neds and wants of targeted groups as best s/he can – Hillary’s one thing for the factory worker in the Rust Belt and quite another to the financier on Wall Street but the handler’s made her acceptable to both. Trump may be a savior to a plurality of potential voters but he needs a majority and the difference means he can’t keep making these mistakes and make them feel confortable trusting their and their families futures to him. Hollary’s handlers are keeping her afloat and the frontrunner Rat even though she has enough garbage attached to her skirt to sink Ronnie were he to magically resurrect. Handlers do that.
It’s all marketing. Folks generally don’t think about how and why things are done in grocery stores. How rows are arranged, how and why products are positioned is that extra push that makes the difference in sales between the corner store and a big box store. You may have the biggest, reddest and juciest tomatoes st the farmer’s market but you aren’t gonna outsell that Big Box World store’s mass-grown fauxmatoes.
Trump should have used pros who’d have been able to go toe-to-toe with tecArat’s experts. Trump wouldn’t have done the architectural work on his own hotels, nor the electrical, HVAC or even the advertising, so not using experts where they are clearly needed was a mistake.
Then again, I wonder if Republican-connected handler would dare work with Trump for fear of the Republican hierarchy punishing them by never hiring them again. It’s possible the big guys put out the word that anyone helping Trump would be black listed so his looking for competent help my ght not have worked. Whatever it is he’s losing support, or not gaining it fast enough, at a time when he really needs the numbers.
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We’ll have to agree to disagree.
People are sick of professional politicians and professional politician handlers.
Obviously Republican professional handlers are horrible at their job since Romney couldn’t beat Obama who should have been easily beat.
I was knocking on doors and making phone calls for Romney and I personally talked to those people who were sick of politicians and no longer voted. I don’t know how many have changed their mind, but I have talked to a few of them this time around and they registered to vote and voted in the primary.
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We can agree on the ‘horrible handlers’, better referred to as salespersons, our party has but the party doctrinaires also don’t give them much to work with. The party needs to have a platform that draws in conservative Rats and undecided voters but is super lousy at doing so.
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Yet that is what Trump has been doing.
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I would also make a wager that Trump knows as much if not more than the architects, HVAC contractors, plumbers, etc., because if he didn’t he wouldn’t be as successful as he is.
Besides a farmer, my Dad was in construction, so I picked up a lot over the years by hanging around construction sites and besides learning a lot which has saved me lots of money over the years by not having to hire someone to do it, I learned about business owners. Those who didn’t last long were those who never showed up at the building site, those who were in it for the long haul, were there getting their hands dirty and overseeing every little detail. It didn’t make the contractors happy, neither did it their employees, but it was done right.
Being the person I am and being raised the way I was, I’m not one of those who look to pay someone to do a job I’m capable of doing myself. I see some of that in Trump, why pay someone to tell you what you should or shouldn’t say when he’s done a better job with getting votes than any of the other guys?
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I’m not talking about the gross issues involving details that make up the meat of any profession but the intricate ones, like international through local electrical codes, that make that professional electrical contractor a pro. As an entrepreneur I’m sure Trump knows the big stuff but it’s thecdetails that will kill you, that’s why as a money man he knows to hire folks who have education and deep experience in their trades, that’s what keeps him from getting sued out of business.
These handlers aren’t there to make him slimy, they’re there to make him salable and get him into office where he can carry out his agenda. Do you think Obama would have been elected ad easily in 2008 if he’d have come out, in detail, with what he was really going to do? He was trained to hint around the edges, make it smell like roses, and then sail on to the WH. There’s nothing that says hiring a professional to navigate the treacherous territories created by other pro handlers is any worse than hiring a skilled surgeon to do your surgery.
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We’re really going to have to agree to disagree on contractors and codes and how Obama got elected.
Take a look at all those who are now out of the race, do you not think they had professionals?
Frankly, I believe if the professionals had left Palin alone she could have pulled out a win for horrible McCain.
These professionals you want him to hire and listen to are part of the establishment and part of the problem.
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If I had one I’m sure I’d have phlox of subscribers.
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UPDATE: Trump Wins GOP Straw Poll in DE
http://delaware1059.com/story/23355-update-trump-wins-gop-straw-poll-in-de
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I was going to post this over at the neighbors, but things are getting a little out of hand again. I can swear with the best of them, but I never put it in print. Anyway, I’m sure it will get better. This guy in Wisconsin really made me feel good about the primary.
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2016/03/30/meet-wisconsins-first-pro-trump-state-legislator/
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What I like about Trump’s “reversal” is that he didn’t apologize as much as he — instead — changed his mind and spoke what he, at that time, believed.
Never. Apologize. To. SJWs. Trump has read SJWs Always Lie, I’m sure.
That’s like human blood in the water for sharks.
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