Today is Super Tuesday, when eleven states cast their votes in primaries or caucuses (Alaska and Minnesota) for the Republican Presidential candidate. An additional three states have delegates who are unbound, meaning they go to the Republican Convention without being bound (on the face of it) to vote for any particular candidate.
All of the states that have their primaries before March 15 have their delegates distributed proportionally among the candidates. The rules for distributing delegates is not the same in every state.
Watch the thresholds. In order to win the GOP nomination, a candidate has to win a majority (1,237) of the delegates to the Republican convention in Cleveland. Each state basically sets its own rules on how primary results translate into delegate counts, and on Tuesday those rules generally point towards two key numbers – 15 percent and 20 percent.
Most Super Tuesday states allocate their delegates proportionally with a threshold of either 15 percent (Arkansas, Oklahoma) or 20 percent (Texas, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, Vermont) of the vote. In other words, the state divides up its delegates proportionally between the candidates who surpass the threshold.
In Texas, for example, a candidate must get 20% of the vote in order to earn any delegates. At the moment, it looks as if Ted Cruz and Donald Trump will split the 155 Texas delegates.
In most of the Super Tuesday states, Donald Trump has a strong lead. Exceptions are Texas (Ted Cruz’s home state), possibly Arkansas, and Minnesota (where Rubio appears to have a lead). The Real Clear Politics Poll Averages, or polls, by state:
According to RNC rules, each congressional district gets three delegates to the national convention. And in many states (including Texas, Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee, among those voting Tuesday) those delegates are allocated based on the results in each district. If a candidate wins a state by a large margin, he’s more likely to rack up delegates in more of that state’s congressional districts. A good example is South Carolina – Trump beat Rubio 32.5 percent-22.5 percent, but that was enough to carry every congressional district and net him all 50 of the delegates.
In many states, congressional district delegates make up a large portion of the state’s overall total. In Georgia they’re 42 of the 76 delegates and in Texas they’re 108 out of 155. So if a candidate wins by a large margin, he might get a substantial delegate haul.
Right now, before the Super Tuesday votes, delegates awarded, by candidate, are:
Watch Texas. Not only does Texas have the largest number of delegates of the states voting On March 1, but it is a critical state for Ted Cruz. If he doesn’t win Texas, his campaign may be over. If Cruz does well in Texas, that will mitigate the losses in the other states, which don’t have anywhere near the number of delegates as Texas, and Cruz’s campaign may still be viable.
After tomorrow, Kasich will probably end his campaign. What Carson will do is not clear at this moment. I imagine that Rubio will stay in the race until at least March 15, the date of the Florida primary. Florida has 99 delegates; right now, Trump leads in the Florida RCP average over Rubio, 40.3% to 20.8%, with Cruz at 15.8%.
Further down the road we will be concerned with what happens to the delegates of candidates who drop out before the convention, which is governed by state party rules.
Stella's Place 
I am just happy I have very busy day and won’t bed able to check how the votes are coming in. The suspense is just a bit much this time around.
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There won’t be anything until after the polls close this evening, anyway. Have a nice day!
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And You Will!!! American Made!
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Good morning all! I got up a little early today to hit the polls at 6 am. In the past, polls here opened at 7 am, and I think a lot of people don’t realize that they opened earlier today. I was about 7th in line. There was a steady stream, but not an overwhelming crush yet. They have gone to using actual paper ballots which are then scanned. I talked to one of the poll workers about possible vote fraud, and he assured me that this method is now being used because it is more reliable than the old electronic voting booths.
There were 4 tables set up, each manned by 2 people. Two of the tables were checking id’s. After they verified your identity, they asked which ballot you wanted, and pointed you to the correct table. As I said, there was not a crush of people yet, but 100% of the people voting at 6 am were getting Republican ballots! I jokingly said as they handed me mine, “you may run out of ballots”. He agreed!
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We use the paper ballots here in my area here, too, and we feed it into the scanner ourselves. Once the ballot is handed to you, nobody else touches it until the end of the day. We also have photo id.
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We have photo ID in Georgia too, but unfortunately not paper ballots.
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That’s the way we do it as well.
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https://twitter.com/ChiefBool/status/704663114533306368
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https://twitter.com/Nero/status/704676712269930496
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Did we win yet?
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When I go Saturday, yes. 😉
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I’m stuck waiting until the get all the fraud ready to go over here anyway.
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https://twitter.com/SpectreReturns/status/704678409679417344
I also read that CNN said Ted is dropping out tomorrow, DJ Lewis (twitter) tweeted it (can’t find the tweet at the moment) but DJ has been accurate on his predictions.
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Cruzer Out???? Is he migrating back to Canada???
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Wishful thinking, it is only speculation so far 🙂
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“…in bid for SCOTUS nom.”
Who would want a snake as a SCOTUS intentionally?
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Roger Stone said that Cruz floated this scenario by Trump and Trump told him absolutely no.
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I read or heard that too. But hey, lying scum seems to know no other way to be.
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I think that is true. Cruz is pathological so he believes his own lies or at least cannot differentiate them from the truth. I would believe that Cruz is confident that if he drops out of the race the nominee then owes their nomination to what Cruz will attribute to Cruz’s “politeness” in doing the right thing for the party. We can already see what persona, Cruz will be anointing himself in, after he is done licking his wounds.
Somehow he will forget he went out a loser.
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Can’t wait for this afternoon, when DH and I will cast our first historic votes for Donald J. Trump!
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I was just thinking about Alaska, while looking at the list of primary/caucus states. When does your voting close? I imagine we won’t be hearing from Alaska until sometime tomorrow.
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We vote from 3 to 7 pm (seems strange). Technically we are a caucus state, but we just go in, vote, and leave. None of that chatting-up-your-neighbors business. Half the state’s population is in the 3 cities, Anchorage, Fairbanks, Juneau. I have no idea how the many villages will be able to vote; probably mail in. Can’t imagine Repub caucuses in a hundred tiny villages.
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Correction: 3 to 8 pm. So it will be midnight ET when our polls close.
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Thanks for confirming. I wasn’t sure if it was midnight your time, or midnight ET.
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More about Colorado, just received this in email:
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404 — File not found.
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Can you see it? It’s a png image.
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Now I can.
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I can see it.
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Can you see this bar??? Bar! Alcohol!! Loooooong night ahead!
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My favorite!
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An none of that damn hippie music either!
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Okay, how about some John “don’t call me cougar ” Mellon a campin, or Bruce Spring Steen, or Huey Lewis and News……
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Thanks lovely, I’ll take it!
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Harvey Wallbanger, sure, fancy screwdriver. Actually, a couple Long Island Ice Teas sounds really good, feel like howling at the moon for a bit.
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How about a Harvey Wallbanger for me, Wee. Seems fitting.
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I’m going to be different tonight. Live a little, make a change. I’ll put ice in my Jack.
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I’m taking you semi- rig keys NOW!
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closeup
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Mmmm. That’s it!
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Speaking of “it”, is the Chapel locked for comments during the election or are people just not going in there and getting it confused with the prayer thread?
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I don’t believe there is a problem posting, just apparently no interest in it. They are all obsessed with nothing but the election.
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I was just surprised. It was like 4 posts since last year.
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You’re gettin’ wild on us here, Menage! Guess I’m wild too, I always put one cube in my Gentleman Jack.
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Gentleman Jack is the stuff! Unless I’m in the mood for the private label personally brewed stuff, still available in select locations. 😉
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Reading the Sundance article http://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/03/01/the-craziest-political-prediction-article-ever-written give me pause on a few things, but I didn’t want my comments lost to the ether over there.
I don’t think Sundance’s article is crazy. I think it is perfectly sensible, logical, and illustrated clearly by events. I think that Sundance believes that others outside of the normal Treeper crowd will think it is crazy, which is why he posted it that way.
I also think that Trump’s presidency will absolutely lead us to war. I think it is unavoidable. Hell, I think it was unavoidable already. The only reason we’re not at war against half a dozen different nations now is because Obama just doesn’t care about foreign policy, and all his idiot advisors don’t have a clue. I also don’t think Trump will be in any way the instigator of these wars, outside of normal economic and political maneuvers.
Look at how Vincente Fox reaction with “not paying for the f’ing wall!” Look at how the GOPe is reacting, constantly, all day, every day, for the past year against Trump.
Now consider how much money is at stake for the elites, the globalists, the GOPe, the Bush clan, the Clinton clan, etc. How many people who are absolutely used to getting their way, are used to being able to exercise their power ruthlessly without limits, view the population as little better than roaches, rats, or sheep, and also incidentally have perhaps half the GDP of the entire planet at stake. They will not back down, will not go quietly into the night, will not acquiesce, will not bide their time. They will lash out, they will strike, they will plot, they will scheme, and they will burn the world in retribution for daring to defy them.
They were going to do this anyway. Before, they were going to be unopposed, and they were already mostly done with enslaving all of us. Now, there is going to be a fight. It is going to be breathtaking in scope, and most likely terrifying beyond imagination. They have influence throughout the world, and they will attempt to use it at every turn to eliminate those that oppose them. To do nothing will be to lose it all, and they will use it and lose it rather than just give it up.
.
.
.
All this being said, I want to get your opinions on something else I’ve been putting together. I’ve hinted at it in my First Principles posts. I’ve made mentions here and there on the Tree House that I think have been mostly missed.
First, I need you to read a few things, so you’ll know where I’m coming from:
1. http://www.bethlehemstar.com/starry-dance/coronation/ (the whole site is great, but you can start here. Further reading is from the link bar at the top “The Study,” which guides you through the entire case the guy makes.)
2. Matthew 24 (choose whichever translation you prefer): http://biblehub.com/matthew/24.htm
Pay particular attention to verses 6-12 and 30-33
3. Revelations 12: http://biblehub.com/revelation/12.htm
4. http://remnantnewspaper.com/web/index.php/articles/item/2127-apocalypse-now-another-great-sign-rises-in-the-heavens
I believe there is a very real probability that Rev 12:1 comes to pass late this year and into next year. I think a great many of Matthew 24 has already come to pass. I believe we are in the middle of Rev 12:15, with the demonic flood threatening to sweep everything away. The relentlessness of the assault, and the increasing pace of the assault, that has taken place against humanity, morality, decency, and life sure seems to fit. It is occurring world-wide, not just here, as those in the Middle East and Europe can attest.
How will the earth swallow the flood? I think we’re seeing the first signs of it. I think part of it will always be “events, dear boy, events.” Happen-stance, coincidence, and timing of natural things that will make the implementation of the serpent’s plans difficult. However, I think it is also us. We are of the earth, made from the earth, and have had the spirit of God blown into us (Genesis 2:7).
Notice that Trump supporters are almost entirely absent of representatives from the elites. There aren’t many Ivy League folk in the crowds. It isn’t the ruling class that is endorsing him, on either side. They are all attacking him. It is the common man, of whom the Lord must love so much, for he made so many of them, that are refusing to buy the dog-and-pony show anymore, and are staunchly standing for Trump. The attacks are washing over us, and we just don’t care. The flood can no longer move us. It doesn’t frighten us anymore. We stand there, ignoring it, no longer afraid, no longer pushed around by it. We are seeing with truly awakened eyes, and it is spreading through the population.
This, of course, leaves war.
Rev 12:17:
Then the dragon became furious with the woman and went off to make war on the rest of her offspring, on those who keep the commandments of God and hold to the testimony of Jesus.
I notice that Donald Trump begins and ends every speech with some variation of “I love you!” He also talks a lot about being able to say “Merry Christmas” again. To tie that all together, go back and read my First Principles posts on the Tree House.
Thoughts?
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If I’m adding the leap year correctly I think we’ll be OK. Unless someone had baby goats this morning, which is one of the signs of the apocalypse. Then we would be so screwed it’s not even funny.
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Darn my goats get blamed for everything.
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baby goats = apocalypse
It was in a Glenn Beck book or speech or somethin’…
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Glenn Beck spent too much time with the illegal Mexicans. They’re almost as bad as the moslems when it comes to goats.
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Mexicans like to eat goats, I know. I’ll ignore the other.
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Pygmy goats are their favorite breed to eat. Not sure about the other.
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Blink……Blink……. I’m not sure I want to understand what you’re talking about.
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Well they like to eat goats among other things…..
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Excellent comment!!!
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Your thesis does have merit. It’s the goal of every president to leave very few options on the table for the next.
Now, I have to return to cleaning my armor, sword, and shield. “Keep the Faith”!
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I’m sorry Cetera. I’m not understanding what you are ultimately asking for. Affirmation? I’m not sure if I agree with SunDance on the assessment of genius vs. learnt skill over time in regards to Trump’s reaction some cases to events. I don’t believe everything in day to day life can be planned for.
Are you asking what is coming in the near future? The last 700 years of Western Civilization’s recorded history shows things can get very bad indeed for the villagers. But life also goes on.
Also, there are plenty of elites that support Trump. Just as there will be opportunists of every class following Trump that have never been able to get to the trough in the past. They think Trump will be their ticket to becoming oligarchy.
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Nye excellant point. Now with regards to planning. In military planning there is a war gaming process, the what ifs. Now sometimes military people think the plan is concrete, it’s not has to be flexible. Maybe Trump threw all of the what ifs on the table. Or I believe Trump could lay a few ambushes. In construction Building is a very methodical process, timing is the key. It’s the same as the what ifs.
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They think Trump will be their ticket to becoming oligarchy
This is the most sobering thought, there are many who want to take back our country but there are many who want to just have the right people control our country.
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And there are many who are stupid and will vote for who another politician tells them to vote for, I know that is why so many in my state were voting for Rubio. Coburn, who they think was oh so conservative because he published pork told them to and slammed Trump. Most of them know nothing about cloture votes, something Coburn was famous for, a few learned about it when the gun groups told them about a cloture vote on gun control. I had more than a few tell me they supported Rubio because Coburn endorsed Rubio and they would walk across hot coals for Senator Coburn.
I honestly think I’m the only Oklahoma Republican who doesn’t love Coburn, but the reason is I don’t just look at roll call votes or Conservative ratings, I like to see how they vote when nobody is paying attention.
BTW, although I’m still not buying certain counties, I do wonder if all the negative ads leading up to today had something to do with Cruz votes statewide? Every ad by Rubio, Cruz and Pacs was attacking Trump and it was constant ads. There were no Trump ads that I saw.
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I’m honestly not certain. I’m still trying to noodle this one out.
I think the only certainties are, 1) bad things are still on the horizon, and 2) Trump is a step in the right direction, but leaves us a long ways to go. At the end result, if we’re getting close to actually being in the end times, victory may be short lived. If not, we’re making good strides that could be consolidated into fantastic gains and achievements with time and effort.
Long story short, I guess it is like everything in life. Live/love like there isn’t a tomorrow, and plan for one anyway.
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Election results updated at the NYT
http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results
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Good resource, thanks Lovely
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This is good too – hover over state to get breakdown:
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/graphics/2016-delegate-tracker/
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I think I’m stuck in moderation, lol…
It is just me being my verbose self, and looking for feedback from you folk.
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Ah, there it is.
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Got it. I think you had too many links, maybe.
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Trump having a presser at 9:00 EST – not a victory speech. Hmmmmm…….
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He was calling it that yesterday; I scheduled the video last night. I think he may have a major announcement – another endorsement?
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I think he is offering all his opponents jobs as caddies at Mar-a-Largo Club 🙂
I believe Florida Gov. Rick Scott is going to endorse Trump.
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That’s the speculation, but you never know.
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I just heard a local reporter say there were still some waiting in line at several precincts.
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Politico has called Georgia for Trump.
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Also Alabama, Tennessee and Massachusetts. I’m going to be ticked at my fellow Okies if they go for Cruz and it makes no sense to me, I’ve witnessed more support for Rubio than Cruz.
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I am becoming more angry.
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Here are the Oklahoma numbers, but with only 2.5% of precincts reporting:
Donald Trump 33.5%
Ted Cruz 27.9%
Marco Rubio 24.6%
Ben Carson 5.7%
John Kasich 5.1%
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I’m following the Oklahoma Election Board site. With 867 of 1956 precincts reporting they show Cruz 34% and Trump 30.07%.
https://www.ok.gov/elections/support/ok_results_seb.html
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Thanks!
The numbers I quoted are from the Bloomberg site:
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/graphics/2016-delegate-tracker/
Hover over state for details.
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I’ve been worried about Oklahoma but more in regards to Rubio not Cruz. I don’t get it.
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Politico just called Oklahoma for Cruz. I want to puke.
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At least the delegates will be apportioned.
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It just changed but Cruz still in the lead.
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Bloomberg just updated too:
Ted Cruz 34.1%
Donald Trump 29.9%
Marco Rubio 24%
Ben Carson 6.6%
John Kasich 3.7%
48.4% of precincts reporting
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I don’t get it. Really?
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How can this be? Cruz was polling consistently at about 20 in OK ?
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I’m looking through the counties now and I’m calling BS.
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http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ok/oklahoma_republican_presidential_primary-4288.html
Latest poll which is consistent with previous polls Cruz 20.3 Trump 32.7
No way a vote swings 15 % up. I don’t buy it. Something is out of whack.
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I agree. If you look at the figures I put in my post ^^, Trump had an RCP average lead of more than 8%.
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I could have bought Rubio coming close or even beating Trump in some of the counties I’m aware of, but I’m not buying these Cruz votes. People were not shy about telling you who they were going to vote for. So I’m supposed to believe all these people who were adamant they were voting for Trump or Rubio suddenly walked into the voting booth and cast their vote for Cruz?
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We might have paper ballots but machines count our votes. I think this is where this is coming from.
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Some of the counties showing Cruz to have won I have called and several I know people who went door to door, including one county my daughter knocked on doors and Cruz voters were almost non-existent, it was Trump and Rubio.
I had no idea about out west and in the panhandle or down south but some of these counties I did know about and I say something stinks.
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Bill has been accurate on all things Trump so far. He was at first not trusting it either but then he put up this tweet.
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I might buy Oklahoma as a whole because I don’t know about every city and county. I will never buy certain counties though.
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https://twitter.com/TRUMPFORTHEUSA/status/704835170852052992
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Although I do believe there was some crooked bs in my state, the good thing is Cruz only gets 2 more delegates than Trump; Cruz – 12, Trump – 10 and Rubio – 6.
According to the delegates Politico is showing tonight added to previous delegates Trump is still way ahead, 221, Cruz – 69, Rubio – 41, Kasich -19 and Carson – 9.
Feel the Bern won Oklahoma which does kind of make me laugh, Hillary didn’t promise our welfare queens and snowflakes enough free s..t.
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Yay! Arkansas called for Trump, I just might have to move to Arkansas. My kinfolk have been telling me to come back to my roots all my life, they never liked that my parents left home, I might just have to do it. More hills for me to hide in as well.
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Alaska by only 600+ votes? Seriously??? Sounds Al Franken-ish, doesn’t it…..
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Yup. 627 votes. Only 21,930 votes total. Less than 3% of the total.
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