Interesting post from X, by Shanaka Anslem Perera. His presence on Substack.

While you watched TikTok, the United States just executed the greatest economic coup in human history.

China controls 80% of rare earth processing—the neurons of every weapon system, smartphone, and AI server on planet Earth. One element: neodymium. Without it, F-35s don’t fly. Teslas don’t move. Data centers go dark.

Trump threatened to destroy $300 billion in Chinese exports with 100% tariffs.

Beijing responded by threatening to choke the global technology supply chain.

Then something impossible happened.

THE 72-HOUR CHECKMATE:

October 24: Malaysia signs mineral pact.
October 25: Thailand signs processing deal.
October 26: Framework announced. China blinks.

Hidden in the fine print: $13 billion Australian rare earth processing. Cambodia extraction rights. Japan’s 2010 playbook—which cut Chinese dependency 30%—now deployed across $350 billion in American AI infrastructure.

THE NUMBER THAT ENDS GLOBALIZATION:

US-China trade: $758B (2018) → $578B (2024)

That $180 billion didn’t vanish. It relocated to nations that bend the knee.

ASEAN trade up 20%. Chinese rare earth market share dropping for first time in 30 years. American supply chains rerouting in real-time while Beijing realizes the trap.

HERE’S WHAT THEY’RE NOT TELLING YOU:

This isn’t trade negotiation. It’s tribute collection.

Trump just converted the world’s largest consumer market from a trade partner into a weapon. Every nation now faces a choice: access to American markets, or access to Chinese supply chains.

Not both. Ever again.

The $20 billion soybean freeze—first since 2018—isn’t retaliation. It’s a demonstration. China can inflict pain. America can inflict extinction.

THE PATTERN THAT BROKE REALITY:

Seventeen times since 2018, identical playbook: Announce apocalyptic tariffs. Markets crater. China retaliates. Then—exemptions appear for allies. Pressure multiplies on Beijing.

63% of Chinese goods face maximum tariffs.
Allied nations: 4%.

Every “chaotic” threat was a calculated bid. Every “impulsive” tweet moved supply chains. Every “Trade War” headline masked the systematic dismantling of Chinese technological sovereignty.

WHAT HAPPENS NEXT:

November 1: Xi meets Trump at APEC.

The deal is already done. Rare earth access for tariff relief. American boots on Asian rare earth facilities. China gets to save face.

America gets the future.

Taiwan, AI dominance, technological independence, and the end of competitive multipolarity—all bundled into a “trade framework” the media will call a truce.

THE TRUTH:

Globalization didn’t collapse.

It was conquered.

Further conversation in the comment section:

GLOBALIZATION DIDN’T DIE — IT GOT A PAYWALL

Receipt 1: Access now depends on permissions, not prices. Dollar clearing, SWIFT pipes, and export licenses are switches Washington can flip. Ask any firm on the U.S. Entity List or a bank that touched a secondary sanction.

Receipt 2: Chips proved the model. 2022–25 controls barred EUV to China and roped in ASML, TSMC, Samsung, Nvidia. Join the ruleset, or lose the market. That’s subscription geopolitics.

Receipt 3: Supply chains are voting with their feet. “China+1” turned into “China+Many”: Vietnam, India, Mexico, and ASEAN pulled record FDI while U.S. tariffs and tech bans stayed. Globalization didn’t collapse; it rerouted through members-only corridors.

Receipt 4: Critical minerals are being re-pathed. China still processes the bulk of rare earths, but U.S.–Australia–Japan projects (Lynas Texas, DoD contracts, allied pacts) are building a non-China spine. Inputs become leverage; leverage becomes policy.

Receipt 5: Markets are now instruments. When access is conditional, price is policy enforcement. The “free market” is a gated API.

Conclusion: America didn’t end globalization; it privatized it. The empire runs on logins, licenses, and loyalties. The real game isn’t who “wins” … it’s who can exit the system without going dark.

Strategy question: When the market itself is a weapon, do you hold assets and infrastructure that still work after the switch is flipped?