Republican Primaries – Where are we now?

 

WHITE_HOUSE_PHOTO_iStock_000011464877Large_16x9_1600This is not about the “whys”, just the “whats”.

First, the summary of where the Republican Presidential field is now:

REAL CLEAR POLITICS

RCPGOPDelCountRCPGOPDelCount2

What’s next?

  • March 3:  Fox News GOP Debate, March 3, Detroit, MI, Fox Theater, 9:00 PM EST
  • March 5:  Primaries in Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine (40+46+46+23 delegates)
  • March 6:  Primary in Puerto Rico (23 delegates)
  • March 8:  Primaries in Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi (19+32+59+40 delegates)
  • March 10: CNN Debate in Miami, Florida
  • March 12: Primaries in District of Columbia, Guam (19+9)
  • March 15: Primaries in Florida, Illinois, Missouri, N Mariana Isl, North Carolina, Ohio (99+69+52+9+55+66 delegates)
  • March 19: Primary in U.S. Virgin Islands (9 delegates)
  • March 22: Primaries in American Samoa, Arizona and Utah (9+58+40 delegates)

Not putting too much into the polls, but we have data for the following states that have primaries or caucuses yet this month. I’ve only included the states that have current polling data. The averages are from Real Clear Politics, unless otherwise noted:

  • Kentucky (45 delegates)           Trump +13
  • Michigan (59 delegates)           Trump +19.4
  • Florida (99 delegates)               Trump +19.5
  • Illinois (69 delegates)               Trump +15.5
  • N. Carolina (72 delegates)       Trump +10.3
  • Ohio (66 delegates)                   Trump +5 (Quinnipiac, 2/20/16)
  • Utah (40 delegates)                   Rubio +2 (Utah Policy Poll, 2/15/16)

eagle

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7 Responses to Republican Primaries – Where are we now?

  1. SwissMike (formerly ZurichMike)'s avatar ZurichMike says:

    Fabulous synopsis and links, Stella. Thank you!

    Liked by 4 people

  2. Col.(R) Ken's avatar Col.(R) Ken says:

    Is this correct, Ben Carson will not participate in Thursdays debate?

    Liked by 1 person

    • Stella's avatar stella says:

      Yes, he made an official announcement, which is kind of odd, because he hasn’t actually suspended his campaign:

      https://www.bencarson.com/news/news-updates/official-statement-by-dr.-ben-carson

      Liked by 1 person

    • Stella's avatar stella says:

      This may have something to do with it:

      GOP to pitch Carson on Rubio’s Florida Senate seat

      http://www.wmur.com/politics/ben-carsons-answered-prayers/38288234#.Vtdzv4x9tRg.facebook

      GOP operatives told CNN early Wednesday morning that they’ll push Ben Carson to drop out of the Republican presidential race, and instead run for a U.S. Senate seat from Florida.

      It’s unclear how receptive the retired neurosurgeon will be to their pleas. Carson did not appear to be going anywhere as Tuesday night drew to a close.

      Sen. Marco Rubio, who’s seat is up, has said he will not seek re-election.

      Carson continues to show no signs of getting out of the race.

      “Millions of Americans plead with me to continue,” he said in a statement Tuesday night. “They want to have a choice and a representative voice to ensure people of faith are not marginalized and that integrity is restored to leadership, with a focus on common sense solutions to the myriad problems we face as a nation. They know I am a citizen candidate, not a politician, who won’t do what is expedient, but what is right.”

      Liked by 2 people

  3. Stella's avatar stella says:

    Mr. Newt’s take on the Presidential race:

    http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/mar/2/newt-gingrich-super-tuesday-beyond-headlines/

    First, neither Hillary Clinton nor Donald Trump have yet gained enough delegates to guarantee their nomination. There is a big difference between carrying a state and sweeping its delegates. Many states award them proportionally.

    Mr. Trump has a greater challenge than Mrs. Clinton because he still faces three opponents.

    Despite carrying seven states Tuesday night, Mr. Trump’s share of delegates was nibbled at on three fronts. Sen. Ted Cruz carried Texas, Oklahoma and Alaska. Sen. Marco Rubio did very well in Virginia (closing the gap dramatically in the last week) and won the Minnesota caucuses. Mr. Kasich split the Vermont delegates evenly with Mr. Trump. Because of proportional representation, winning the popular vote did not necessarily mean running away with the delegate count.

    The result of this three-way fight was that Mr. Trump’s total (316 delegates) is actually smaller than that of his combined rivals (365 delegates).

    In the primary process so far, Mr. Trump has a sizable lead but not yet a majority. He has won 3.3 million votes, Mr. Cruz has won 2.8 million, Mr. Rubio 2.1 million, and Mr. Kasich and Ben Carson about half a million each.

    The establishment class sees a slim chance to gang up on Mr. Trump and deny him a majority of the delegates. This slender potential has the establishment in a frenzy.

    If candidates and their SuperPACs can generate enough attacks, they might have a chance to stop Mr. Trump.

    If Mr. Rubio and Mr. Cruz can team up on Mr. Trump in a few more debates (like they did in Houston), they might have a chance to stop Mr. Trump.

    If Mr. Rubio can win Florida and Mr. Kasich can win Ohio, they might have a chance to stop Mr. Trump (since both are winner-take-all-states).

    (more at link)

    Liked by 3 people

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